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外媒引用梅·摩西艺术品指数:艺术品的新一轮投资热潮是否到来

发布时间:2010年06月07日

2010年5月22日出版的《华尔街日报》英文版对5月4日于纽约佳士得以巨额拍卖 毕加索艺术作品一事进行评论报道,此次拍卖创造了世界艺术品拍卖史上拍卖价格的新纪录。拍卖结束后,引起了各界广泛关注,此文还引用了梅·摩西艺术品指数 对艺术品市场近期的变化做出深入分析,讨论是否艺术品的新一轮投资热潮就此到来?

同时,5/6月《特许财务分析师期刊》发表题为“艺术品投资:客户投资组合的更好选择?”的文章,文中借助梅·摩西艺术品指数将股票和艺术品两种投资方式进行比较,并对50年间两种投资方式的风险做出了评估与判断。

梅·摩西艺术品指数是长江商学院教授梅建平博士多年潜心研究成果,是通过建立可用于分析艺术品价格走势的数学模型,与纽约大学迈克·摩西教授一起 创造的分析指数。梅·摩西艺术品指数的报道已见诸于世界主流财经媒体报端。如《经济学家》、《福布斯》、《时代》、《金融时报》、《华尔街日报》、《商业 周刊》等;同时,被著名投资银行摩根斯坦利定为世界十大生产指数之一,包括摩根·斯坦利、美林、UBS、花旗银行、德意志银行等金融机构也引用该指数。

两篇报道如下:

Is Art the Next Boom Investment? - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

On May 4, Pablo Picasso's "Nude, Green Leaves, and Bust" sold for $106.5 million at Christie's in New York, setting the world record for any work of art sold at an auction. Which has art-loving investors wondering: Is the art market exiting its recession?

If theft is any gauge of popularity, they can take heart: Five multimillion-dollar works, including pieces by Picasso and Henri Matisse, were found missing from Paris's Musée d'Art Moderne early Thursday.

"It looks like the art market is starting to come back," says Michael Moses, a retired professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and co-creator of the widely followed Mei Moses All Art Index. The art world tends to trail the stock market by six to 18 months, he says, which suggests there could be more upside later this year.

But those hoping to swoop in on a nascent rally should be aware that even the most beautiful art can carry major blemishes as an investment. "Just like stocks, there are parts of the art market that will perform differently," Prof. Moses says.

(完整全文)

The Fine Art of Investing
Is art a good way to diversify a client's portfolio? – CFA Institute

Assuming an investor understands the risks and can navigate the market successfully, what role can art play in terms of portfolio characteristics, such as expected returns, volatility, and correlation with other asset classes? The Mei Moses Fine Art Index creates auction-market statistics, with an overall fine art market index and five submarket indexes. The indexes use the repeat-sale method for objects held at least one year, based on the approach taken with the Case-Shiller real estate indexes. According to Michael Moses, co-founder of the indexes, these categories include more than 15000 repeat-sale pairs and capture 90-95 percent of the dollar volume of the works sold at Sotheby's and Christie's in New York City.

Analysis of art's performance depends on the submarket and the holding period considered. Over the past 25 years, for example, stocks have substantially outperformed art, but art has outperformed stocks for the past 10 years. Moses believes considering a longer holding period is the Correct approach. “We like to use 50 years because we believe that art is a long-cycle type of product—it tends to not disappear,” he says. “And we like to use a long period because it has several booms and busts in both the stock market and the art market. If you look at theat period, we find that the returns of the S&P 500 with dividends untaxed is about a half point greater than art—they're about the same. We measure risk by looking at the standard deviation of the annual return. At 50 years, the risk of art is slightly less than that of the S&P is very low. In this last run, it's about -0.02 Prior, it had been running about 0.03, and it's usually negatively correlated with 10-year Treasuries.”

 

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